Global crude supply tightened further Thursday after Iraq suspended all oil exports and Oman closed its primary crude export terminal amid continuing Iranian military strikes across the Middle East. The simultaneous loss of two significant supply sources added to pressure on Brent crude, which climbed back toward $100 a barrel despite the largest emergency reserve release in the history of the International Energy Agency. Energy market analysts say the physical loss of supply is now outrunning policy interventions.
Iraq shut down all operations at its oil export ports after two nearby tankers were struck by Iranian forces. Oman cleared all vessels from its Mina Al Fahal terminal — one of the few functional crude export points remaining in the region — following drone strikes on a neighboring port. Bahrain placed residents in the Muharraq Governorate under shelter-in-place orders after fuel tanks were targeted.
Brent crude rose 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 a barrel before settling at around $98, still up about 6%. West Texas Intermediate gained 8.6% to $94.75 per barrel. The price has risen dramatically from $60 at the year’s start, reaching a weekly peak of $119. Iran’s military warned of potential $200-per-barrel oil.
The IEA’s record release of 400 million barrels from 32 member nations, combined with the US announcement of a 172-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown, represented an extraordinary supply-side response. But with major producing and transit nations incapacitated, the interventions were insufficient to fully counteract the market’s fears. The Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since February 28.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel from $66. Deutsche Bank described a growing stagflation risk. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.2%, and European natural gas rose 7.7%.